March 1
★★★☆☆U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI & U.S. Markit Manufacturing PMI (Final Value) (Feb)
The manufacturing PMI index is an indicator that the market pays great attention to, reflecting the state of the US economy and the state of the global economy. Many institutions expect a significant economic growth slowdown this year. Moreover, most leading companies began large-scale layoffs, which may be disadvantageous to the future of the US economy, which will be bearish for the dollar but bullish for gold.
Gold is expected to fluctuate about 0~5
Profit per lot up to $500
March 2
★★★☆☆Europe CPI(Initial) (MoM) (YoY) (Feb) & Unemployement Rate (Jan)
At present, inflation in the Eurozone is still high. Many officials of the European Central Bank and central bank governors of the Eurozone support “short-term sharp interest rate hikes,” raising interest by 50 pbs in order to effectively suppress inflation and catch up. US benchmark interest rate. On the whole, inflation in the Eurozone remains high, which will be bullish for EUR and gold but bearish for the dollar.
Gold is expected to fluctuate about 0~5
Profit per lot up to $500
March 8
★★★★☆U.S. ADP National Employment Report (Feb)
Nick Timiraos, known as the mouthpiece of the Fed, mentioned that the strong labor market might boost wages to rise faster and become another “lead” to ignite inflation. Therefore, it is important for investors to keep an eye on the labor market for signs of decline. However, recent economic data has been generally weak, including PMI, consumer confidence, and a drop in inflation, along with a series of layoffs by major US companies, which are not conducive to the labor market. Overall, the US labor market is likely to be weaker than expected, which will be bearish to the dollar but bullish for gold.
Gold is expected to fluctuate about 5~10
Profit per lot up to $1000
March 10
★★★★★U.S. Non-Farm Payroll & Unemployment Rate (Feb)
Leading US companies currently have large-scale layoffs. In addition to previous large-scale layoff plans by Twitter, Meta, Netflix, Amazon, and even the agency Goldman Sachs, Dow, IBM and SAP also plan to lay off thousands of employees lately to cope with the increasingly bleak economic outlook. Layoffs by large companies will also affect the US labor market to some extent. Overall, leading stocks have laid off workers on a large scale. The economic downturn may be bearish to the non-agricultural employment population, which will be bearish to the dollar and bullish to gold.
Gold is expected to fluctuate about 10~15
Profit per lot up to $1500
March 14
★★★★★U.S. Not Seasonnally Adjusted CPI (MoM) (YoY) & U.S. Not Seasonnally Adjusted Core CPI (YoY) (Feb)
Fed officials are expected to consider pausing rate hikes after meeting in March if evidence proves that inflation is cooling, which is outlined by Fed Governor Waller. According to Waller’s benchmark, if the trends continue for another three months, Fed officials will have enough evidence to feel confident about pausing the rate hikes before their meeting on 5/2 and 5/3. Overall, the February CPI YoY and MoY value, as well as the core CPI YoY rate, are expected to meet or be lower than expected, allowing the Fed to slow the tightening of monetary policy, which is bearish for the dollar and bullish for gold.
Gold is expected to fluctuate about 10~15
Profit per lot up to $1500
March 16
★★★★☆ECB announces interest rate decision & ECB President Lagarde holds monetary policy press conference
ECB officials have continued to release hawkish messages. Many officials said they need to hike interest rates sharply in recent meetings to curb inflation. In general, the ECB may be forced to adopt a tighter monetary policy to suppress inflation under slowing economic growth, which is expected to be bullish for EUR and gold but bearish for dollar.
Gold is expected to fluctuate about 0~5
Profit per lot up to $500
March 23
★★★★★Federal Reserve FOMC announces interest rate decision and policy statement & Fed Chairman Powell holds monetary policy press conference
US inflation has now dropped significantly, coupled with the weak performance of the economic data, the Fed’s rate hike is highly probable in line with market expectations. However, Powell has stressed in recent meetings that interest rates will not be reduced this year. The terminal rate may be raised again to reach the target of 2% annual rate of inflation. Overall, the upcoming terminal interest rates may be raised again, bullish to the dollar and bearish to gold.
Gold is expected to fluctuate about 10~15
Profit per lot up to $1500
March 23
★★★★☆BOE announces interest rate decision and meeting minutes
UK inflation is still at a historical high and economic growth is slowing. Coupled with the fact that the UK has now started selling off UK government bonds, the economic situation and monetary policy will put the BoE in a dilemma. The BoK interest rate decision is expected to be in line with expectations. It may cause significant shocks to the pound and the dollar in the short term. Gold may also experience some volatility.
Gold is expected to fluctuate about 0~5
Profit per lot up to $500
March 31
★★★★☆U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE) (MoM) (Feb)
PCE data is the most concerned data for the Fed. Compared with CPI, PCE contains a smaller proportion of rent and health care weighting, which is able to truly reflect the real inflation situation in the US. The CPI, PPI, and PCE indices show a steady downward trend. The Fed will raise the terminal interest rate to suppress high inflation continuously. Overall, the PCE index may be lower than expected again, which is bearish for the dollar and bullish for gold.
Gold is expected to fluctuate about 5~10
Profit per lot up to $1000
Contents
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